Market Cycle History

A look at the past two market cycles and extrapolating them into the current cycle.

June 14, 2022 ES

We appear to have reached close to a local bottom before some relief. We reached our target zone for Wave 5, we are seeing some divergences in RSI and price oscillators. A lot hinges on the Fed meeting tomorrow. Anything outside of "we are raising 75bps" is likely to cause a rally as that is what is priced in to the bond markets.

What If We Replayed the 2000 Crash?

This is a chart of the SPX with the bars from the 2000 crash overlayed. It shows how long and drawn out that bear market played out. Unfortunately, so far is pretty accurate with today's market.

Are We in a Descending Wedge?

Descending wedges are typically bullish with a price target equal to the height of the back of the wedge.

Under normal circumstances I would trade this pattern, but given the macro "Fed Call" environment I will file this in the "things that won't happen" folder. If it does come to fruition it will be one massive, deadly bull trap.

Latest Macro Charts

S&P 500

From a high time frame 5-wave macro cycle, we are due for a major correction not seen since the Great Depression.

For this bear market, based on the intentions and actions of the federal reserve, I am watching for a full retracement of the bubble that began in 2020. This would align with the 1800-2200 range from the 5-wave macro cycle retracement.

US Oil

Watching for a peak in Oil which will lead to demand destruction, and a collapse in oil prices. ("The cure for high prices is high prices.").


As part of the demand destruction that brings commodities prices back to reality, Gold will also collapse as it has in past market crashes.


Targeting the $300-400 range for a cycle bottom based on historical retracements, fibs and EW. Price levels based on volume profile analysis from the 2020-2021 cycle.


Similar to Ethereum I am looking for Bitcoin to fully retrace the 2020 cycle, bottoming close to the $3k region. Current chart shows some stops along the way.

10Y Treasury Yield

It is hard to predict 10Y Treasury yields since it eventually breaks something and the entire jenga tower collapses. We are getting close as the real estate market is getting hit hard. We may have one more push or this may be the final run, but it should coincide with Oil and Gold turning the corner.